Top 20 Technology Driven Trends for 2012

By Daniel Burrus

No matter what industry you’re in, your company can’t survive without technology. And these days, even non-technical employees know that technology goes way beyond desktop computers and networks. From smart phones and tablet computers to mobile apps and cloud-based technology, there’s a plethora of technological advancements to not only keep track of, but also to profit from.Therefore, as a CIO, it’s up to you to anticipate the future technology trends that are shaping your business and then develop innovative ways to implement them in your organization.
Now that 2012 is well underway, be ready for the following 20 technology-driven trends to continue to create both disruption and opportunity in the business world. But rather than just react to them, be "pre-active" to future known events and plan how you’ll profit from them now. That’s the only way you’ll gain competitive advantage and become viewed as both a strategy creator and enabler within your company.
So here are the Top 20 tech trends I think you should be aware of this year:
1) Rapid growth of Big Data, a term used to describe the technologies and techniques used to capture and utilize the exponentially increasing streams of data with the goal of bringing enterprise-wide visibility and insights to make rapid critical decisions, will usher in high speed analytics (HSA). Using advanced cloud services, HSA will increasingly be used as a complement to existing information management systems and programs to tame the massive data explosion. This new level of data integration and analytics will require many new skills and cross-functional buy-in in order to break down the many data and organizational silos that still exist. The rapid increase in data makes this a fast growing hard trend that cannot be ignored.
2) Cloud computing and advanced cloud services will be increasingly embraced by business of all sizes, as this represents a major shift in how organizations obtain and maintain software, hardware, and computing capacity. As consumers, we first experienced public clouds (think about when you first used Google or Apple’s MobileMe and now iCloud). Then we saw more private clouds and hybrid clouds from businesses such as Flextronics, Siemens, Accenture, and many others, all using the cloud to cut costs in human resources and sales management functions. This was only the beginning, as cloud services enable the rapid transformation all business processes.
3) On Demand Services will increasingly be offered to companies needing to rapidly deploy new services. Hardware as a service (HaaS) joins Software as a Service (SaaS), creating what some have called “IT as a service” (ITaaS). All will grow rapidly with many new players in a multitude of business process categories. These services will help companies cut costs as they provide access to powerful software programs and the latest technology without having the expense of a large IT staff and time-consuming, expensive upgrades. As a result, IT will be increasingly freed to focus on enabling business process transformation, which will allow organizations to maximize their return on technology investments.  
4) Virtualization of storage, desktops, applications, and networking will see continued acceptance and growth by both large and small businesses as virtualization security improves. We will continue to see the virtualization of processing power, allowing mobile devices to access supercomputer capabilities and apply it to processes such as purchasing and logistics, to name a few.
5) Consumerization of IT increases as the source for innovation and technology continues to be driven by the consumer thanks to rapid advances in processing power, storage, and bandwidth. Smart companies have recognized that this is a hard tend that will continue and have stopped fighting consumerization. Instead, they are turning this trend into a competitive advantage by consumerizing their applications, such as recommending safe and secure third party hardware and apps. Encouraging employees to share productivity enhancing consumer technology will become a wise strategy.
6) Gameification of training and education will fuel a fast moving hard trend using advanced simulations and skill-based learning systems that are self-diagnostic, interactive, game-like, and competitive -- all focused on giving the user an immersive experience thanks to a photo-realistic 3D interface. Some will develop software using these gaming techniques to work on existing hardware systems such as the Xbox and PlayStation. A social component of gameification that includes sharing will drive success.
7) Social business takes on a new level of urgency as organizations shift from an Information Age “informing” model to a Communication Age “communicating and engaging” model. Social software for business will reach a new level of adoption with applications to enhance relationships, collaboration, networking, social validation, and more. Social search will increasingly be used by marketers and researchers, not to mention Wall Street, to tap into millions of daily tweets and Facebook conversations, providing real-time analysis of many key consumer metrics.
8) Smartphones and tablets will become our primary personal computers, and the mobile Web will become a must-have capability. This means an enterprise mobility strategy will become mandatory for all size organizations as we see mobile data, mobile media, mobile sales, mobile marketing, mobile commerce, mobile finance, mobile payments, mobile health, and many more explode. The vast majority of mobile phones sold globally will have a browser, making the smart phone our primary computer that is with us 24/7 and signaling a profound shift in global computing. This new level of mobility will allow any size business to transform how they market, sell, communicate, collaborate, educate, train, and innovate using mobility.
9) Tablet computers with enterprise level Web apps will be used to transform sales and service support and then move to purchasing, logistics, just-in-time training, and much more.
10) Intelligent electronic agents using natural language voice commands take off with Apple’s Siri, rapidly followed by Android, Microsoft, and others all offering what will become a mobile electronic concierge on your smart devices including your phone, tablet, and television. Soon retailers will have a Siri-like sales assistant, and maintenance workers will have a Siri-like assistant. The possibilities are endless. 
11) Digital identity management will become increasingly important to both organizations and individuals as new software allows users to better manage their multiple identities across business and personal networks. Next generation biometrics will play a key role in both identity management and security.
12) Visual communications takes video conferencing to a new level with programs like SKYPE, Apple's FaceTime, and others giving us video communication on phones, tablets, and home televisions. Visual communications will be integrated with current video conferencing systems, fueling this as a main relationship-building tool for businesses of all sizes.
13) Enhanced location awareness will accelerate the number of business-to-consumer apps for smart phones and tablets that will take geo-social marketing and sales to a new level of creative application, driving rapid growth.
14) Geo-spatial visualization combines geographic information systems (GIS) with location-aware data, radio frequency identification (RFID), and other location-aware sensors (including the current location of users from the use of their mobile devices) to create new insights and competitive advantage. Early applications include logistics and supply chain to name a few.
15) Smart TV using apps will get a major boost in the marketplace, fueling a major shift in home viewing. Ever wonder how you could have over 500 cable or satellite channels and nothing to watch? You didn’t have apps on your TV allowing you to personalize the experience. This is the beginning of a major shift that will take place in living rooms globally. Look for Apple to introduce the iTV, basically a living room sized iPad.
16) Multiple app stores for all smart phone, tablet, and television operating systems (Android, Blackberry, Windows, and others) will take off, creating an abundant distribution and sales ecosystem for all. This will cement the revolution versus evolution that apps software represents. We will see business app stores for the enterprise starting this year.
17) 3D displays for smartphones and tablets will be the breakthrough that will drive wide-scale consumer acceptance of 3D computing. 3D computing for the enterprise will grow rapidly for military, medicine, fashion, architecture, and entertainment applications.
18) eBooks, eNewspapers, and eMagazines pass the tipping point due to the abundance of smartphones with readable displays, tablets that provide a full color experience, and publishers providing apps that give a better than paper experience by including cut, copy, paste, print, and multimedia capabilities. In addition, eBook readers will have high quality with a low enough price to bring in the masses. 
9) Interactive multimedia eTextbooks will finally take off thanks to Apple’s iBook Author and other competing tools, freeing new publishers to create compelling and engaging content, and freeing students from a static, expensive, and literally heavy experience. 
20) Wireless machine-to-machine applications such as two-way meter reading, surveillance, vending machine, and point-of-sale solutions take off thanks to faster wireless data networks.
Are these the only technology-driven trends for 2012 to be aware of? Of course not. As any CIO knows, technology is always evolving, resulting in new trends emerging and new products appearing every day. That’s why one of your key functions is to stay ahead of the trends by anticipating them, adapting them to your unique environment before the competition does, and ultimately enabling your organization to profit from them. The more you’re able to do that, the sooner you’ll be able to take your organization to the next level of success.
Daniel Burrus is considered one of the world’s leading technology forecasters and business strategists, and is the founder and CEO of Burrus Research, a research and consulting firm that monitors global advancements in technology driven trends to help clients better understand how technological, social and business forces are converging to create enormous, untapped opportunities. He is the author of six books, including the national bestseller "Flash Foresight: How To See the Invisible and Do the Impossible" as well as the highly acclaimed Technotrends. Be sure to check out Volume 2 of Daniel's "Know What's Next Magazine," an annual publication on strategies for transforming your business and future.

Source:http://www.cioupdate.com/technology-trends/the-top-20-technology-driven-trends-for-2012.html

The Virtual Nurse Will See You Now

By Emily Singer
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
In the hectic world of a hospital, a computer-simulated nurse can be surprisingly comforting.

VIDEO

Researchers at Northeastern University have developed a virtual nurse and exercise coach that are surprisingly likable and effective—even if they're not quite as affable as the medical hologram on Star Trek. In fact, patients who interacted with a virtual nurse named Elizabeth said they preferred the computer simulation to an actual doctor or nurse because they didn't feel rushed or talked down to.

A recent clinical trial of the technology found that Elizabeth also appears to have a beneficial effect on care. A month after discharge, people who interacted with the virtual nurse were more likely to know their diagnosis and to make a follow-up appointment with their primary-care doctor. The results of the study are currently under review for publication.

"We try to present something that is not just an information exchange but is a social exchange," says Timothy Bickmore, associate professor in Northeastern's College of Computer and Information Science. Bickmore led the research. "It expresses empathy if the patient is having problems, and patients seem to resonate with that."

Bickmore first became interested in working on "virtual agents" after seeing demonstrations of very early interactive animated characters. "I was amazed at how people were instantly mesmerized by them, and how quickly this effect vanished when the characters did something stupid," he says. "I was interested in seeing how they could be engineered to maintain the enchantment over long periods of time and be used for practical purposes beyond entertainment."

He adds that patients with little or no computer experience seem to prefer the virtual person to more standard computer interactions, because it feels more natural.

"Most people get frightened when they hear they are going to get care from a computer, so to hear so clearly that we are not short-changing patients is gratifying," says Joseph Kvedar, a physician and founder and director of the Center for Connected Health at Partners Healthcare. Kvedar has collaborated with Bickmore in the past.

To develop the computer-controlled avatars, researchers first recorded interactions between patients and nurses. They then tried to emulate the nurses' nonverbal communication by endowing the virtual character with hand gestures and facial expressions. (The resulting animation is, however, much simpler than today's sophisticated video games.)

Researchers also add small talk, asking users about local sports teams and the weather, which real nurses and coaches often do to put patients at ease. The verbal interactions are fairly basic; the nurse or trainer has a set repertoire of questions, and users choose from a selection of possible answers. For anything beyond that repertoire, the virtual agent will refer the patient to a human health-care provider.

Adding these apparently simple touches of humanity does appear to influence how people interact with the program. Patients more accurately reported their health information when interacting with the virtual character than they were when filling out a standard electronic questionnaire.

"This was designed from the ground up to be patient-friendly, warm and engaging; it's not necessarily the most lifelike and real-human-looking representation, but through trial and error, they have found the characteristics that resonate with patients," says Steven Simon, chief of general internal medicine at the VA Boston Healthcare System. "I think they are just scratching the surface in terms of how it can best be used, such as in patients with chronic conditions, such as asthma and diabetes."

Such technologies will become increasingly important with rising health-care costs and an aging population. "We already know we don't have enough health-care providers to go around, and it's only getting worse," says Kvedar. "About 60 percent of the cost of delivering health care comes from human resources, so even if you can train more people, it's not an ideal way to improve costs."

Kvedar worked with Bickmore on a second, home-based trial, in which a virtual coach called Karen encouraged overweight sedentary adults to exercise. Users checked in with Karen three times a week, and she gave them recommendations and listened to their problems. Over 12 weeks, those who talked to the coach were significantly more active than those who simply had an accelerometer to record how much they walked.

"Older adults seem to be really accepting. They like the social aspect of it," says Bickmore. "With the home-based agent, I think they would like to chat with them longer than we let them."

Some users wanted to know more about their virtual coaches, so Bickmore's team experimented with giving the characters a backstory. They found that participants whose virtual coach told them stories in the first person were more likely to log into the system than those who heard the same stories in the third person.

"They had more frequent conversations with the coach when it was being more human, and they did not report feeling more deceived," says Bickmore. He adds that when asked, participants do understand the character is virtual, but they say they sometimes forget. "They say they will feel guilty about not logging in, which means they have formed some kind of emotional bond."

But not everyone responded well to Karen. One of the challenges in broadening the use of this technology will be creating virtual characters that can learn from users and adapt to their preferences.

Bickmore's team is now working on a virtual nurse that would reside in the hospital room. Patients can talk to it about their hospital experience, report pain levels, and ask questions. The researchers are also integrating sensors into the system, to record when the patient is sleeping, for example, or to track when different doctors enter the room.

In a pilot study, patients had an average of 17 conversations with the nurse per day. "When we interviewed them afterward, we found that the agent seemed to be effective at addressing the loneliness you often feel if you're at the hospital by yourself," says Bickmore.

Copyright Technology Review 2011.

Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=39035