New Book Argues That The War on Terror Is Being Lost

New Book Argues That The War on Terror Is Being Lost

November 12, 2011. 10:27 am • Section: Defence Watch

Ten years after the 9/11 attacks, US officials are speaking openly of Al Qaeda’s impending death, but stating this ignores the major geopolitical trends that could well strengthen violent non-state actors in the coming years, says Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, counterterrorism expert and author of the new book, “BIN LADEN’S LEGACY: Why We’re Still Losing the War on Terror” (Wiley).

According to Gartenstein-Ross, the second decade following the September 11th attacks and the onset of the “war on terror” is likely to be defined by the fragility of the nation-state system. Three overarching trends are driving this fragility:

• The world is entering an era of austerity caused by record national debts and slumping economies. This makes developed countries less likely to sustain their extravagant counter-terrorism budgets – thus creating the prospect that future attacks may be more likely to succeed.

The second defining trend is resource scarcity. The past two decades have seen unprecedented global growth – especially in China and India. This growth has put a strain on the world’s resources. When there are rising food prices, it create desperation for those who worry that their basic needs will go unfulfilled.

The third defining trend is technological advances that empower non-state actors who wish to overturn the status quo. Technological developments can make upheavals hit an already unstable system at a heretofore unimaginable pace.

Fragility equals unpredictability, Gartenstein-Ross, says. “Thriving in the decade of fragility will involve a nimbleness and ability to adapt that developed countries have not displayed during the past decade.”

Gartenstein-Ross on the things to consider:

• Looking specifically at the threat of terrorism, it is important to make counter-terrorism efforts more efficient and strategic.
• From an infrastructural perspective, it is important to identify the vulnerabilities that a society will have in five, 10 and 15 years’ time, in order to work on these from time zero.
• A final critical question that must be asked concerns the pace of change. The question is whether having another regime fall – another new government in need of international assistance – is a good or bad thing. Indeed, there may be something to be said for letting an already challenging pace of change remain somewhat ‘manageable.’

He adds, “Without question, the decade ahead will feature unprecedented challenges. The threat posed by violent non-state actors will probably deepen rather than recede, driven by the overarching trends that will make nation-states more fragile and already-fragile states dangerously so.”

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Ottawa Citizen>Blogs >News>Defence Watch

Source:http://blogs.ottawacitizen.com/2011/11/12/new-book-argues-that-the-war-on-terror-is-being-lost/