2011: World Poised to Enter New "Era" of Nuclear Weapons (And it's not good)

World Poised to Enter New "Era" of Nuclear Weapons: Report

Monday, Oct. 31, 2011

Nuclear-armed countries appear to be moving into a perilous new "era of nuclear weapons," even as governments contend with funding shortages and call publicly for the elimination of such armaments, states an expert assessment issued this week (see GSN, Feb. 9).

Nations such as France, Israel, Pakistan and Russia are giving nuclear armaments postures that extend significantly farther than simply ensuring the countries are not attacked, the London-based British American Security Information Council said in the document.

The document is the beginning of a line of planned analyses for the Trident Commission, a panel of prominent former high-level British officials. Former Labor Party Defense Secretary Des Browne, former Conservative Defense Secretary Malcolm Rifkind and former Liberal Democrats defense spokesman Menzies Campbell are among the commission's leaders.

The development of more compact, lower-weight nuclear devices is a goal in both India and Pakistan, which could field such weapons for transfer over longer distances or for "nonstrategic" uses involving closer targets, BASIC Research Director Ian Kearns wrote in the analysis.

New Agni missile variants under development in India could hit any point in Pakistan and much of China, including the nation's capital, according to the report. An Indian nuclear-capable cruise missile is aimed for deployment at sea, and the South Asian state intends to construct five ballistic-missile submarines, it adds.

Pakistan is refining its nuclear-weapon schematics, building nuclear-ready cruise missiles and reactors for generating plutonium, and altering its Shaheen 2 missiles to travel greater distances, the assessment states.

"In the case of Israel, the size of its nuclear-tipped cruise missile enabled submarine fleet is being increased and the country seems to be on course, on the back of its satellite launch rocket program, for future development of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)," the document states. The nation is pursuing an ICBM capacity, boosting the maximum flight distance of its Jericho 3 missile and adding to its supply of submarines able to carry nuclear-armed cruise missiles, the analysis adds (see GSN, Oct 27; Richard Norton-Taylor, London Guardian, Oct. 30).

The United States intends to provide $700 billion for nuclear arms programs over the next 10 years, as well as an additional $92 billion for sustaining and updating nuclear bombs and related manufacturing infrastructure, according to the report. In addition, Washington is making preparations for the construction of 12 additional ballistic-missile submarines, and it is slated in 2025 to start swapping out aircraft-fired cruise missiles for a "longer-range standoff nuclear missile." (British American Security Information Council report, Oct. 30).

Russia is set through 2020 to spend no less than $70 billion on upgrading its land-, air- and sea-based systems for carrying nuclear warheads, the Guardianquoted the report as saying. The country is preparing transferable ICBMs capable of accommodating more than one nuclear explosive device, and a forthcoming line of Russian ballistic-missile submarines would be capable of accommodating cruise missiles, the document states, noting Moscow is said to be laying the groundwork for 10 army brigades to receive nuclear-ready short-range missiles in as many years.

A supply of "road-mobile" midrange and long-range missiles is growing in China, the report asserts, adding the weapons could each carry several nuclear bombs. Beijing has undertaken the assembly of as many as five ballistic-missile submarines suited to fire between 36 and 60 of the weapons, potentially offering an uninterrupted ocean-based deterrent.

France is using a "more robust warhead" to arm the greater-distance missiles it has placed on four submarines the nation recently finished assembling and fielding, according to the analysis.

The North Korean Musudan missile, unveiled last year, boasts a 2,500-mile maximum flight distance that places Japan within its reach, the report states. Pyongyang has conducted a trial flight of the Taepodong 2 missile, which could theoretically travel farther than 6,000 miles to hit a point in 50 percent of the continental United States. Still, "it is unclear whether North Korea has yet developed the capability to manufacture nuclear warheads small enough to sit on top of these missiles," the analysis states (Norton-Taylor, London Guardian).

Source: http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/siteservices/print_friendly.php?ID=nw_20111031_4180