Showing posts with label Economic Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic Predictions. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

'Macro to Micro Implications of Top Mega Trends in India to 2020'

Webinar on 'Macro to Micro Implications of Top Mega Trends in India to 2020'
8 Feb 2012 14:03

A free webinar, entitled 'Macro to Micro Implications of Top Mega Trends in India to 2020' and hosted by Sarwant Singh, partner at Frost & Sullivan, together with Archana Amarnath, program manager at Frost & Sullivan, is available for download.
India will be at the core of global business and commercial activity, with projections of the largest working-age and youngest population in 2020. India will also be home to 864 million middleclass households by 2020, which will spur demand for white goods and compel companies to experiment with the low-cost segment.

Moving forward, India is an important business partner to South Africa. The global economy is shifting to emerging markets and strengthening trade and business ties with India is essential for South African business. India has shown interest in moving into Africa. South African businesses should take advantage of this opportunity by securing their role in the facilitation of trade between India and Africa.

The web briefing highlights trends, such as urbanisation and high infrastructure investment, which will shape the future of a well-planned and connected India. Collectively, these trends identify the inherent potential market and business opportunities created in leading industries in every segment of the value chain. The presentation provides insight into these forces of change, which will multiply India's growth over the next decade and help companies identify growth opportunities in one of the world's most dynamic markets.

Webinar focus
  • Mega trends in India that will impact the country's future
  • Understanding of the future direction of urban movement of mega city corridors and networked, integrated, and branded cities and evaluating opportunities/threats arising out of the same
  • Gaining insight into future demographic trends and next generation of social networking
  • Understanding the implications arising from the over US $1 trillion of expected infrastructure spending
  • Identifying opportunities arising from the expected 1.5 billion connected devices in 2020
  • Understanding the impact of a generational political shift and political leadership of future young urban intellectual leaders in India
  • Identifying the top 10 industries of the future in India
  • Understanding new business models such as Value for Many and implications on markets and business strategies
  • Understanding the inter-linkages of these Mega Trends and implications on the country, industries, and cities at a micro level
To register and listen to the webinar, go to www.brighttalk.com/channel/5562

The Future of Lust Circa 1909: (Back To) The Future of Lust

The Futurist Manifesto of Lust
Valentine de Saint-Point
A reply to those dishonest journalists who twist phrases to make the Idea seem ridiculous;
to those women who only think what I have dared to say;
to those for whom Lust is still nothing but a sin;
to all those who in Lust can only see Vice, just as in Pride they see only vanity.

Lust, when viewed without moral preconceptions and as an essential part of life’s dynamism, is a force.

Lust is not, any more than pride, a mortal sin for the race that is strong. Lust, like pride, is a virtue that urges one on, a powerful source of energy.

Lust is the expression of a being projected beyond itself. It is the painful joy of wounded flesh, the joyous pain of a flowering. And whatever secrets unite these beings, it is a union of flesh. It is the sensory and sensual synthesis that leads to the greatest liberation of spirit. It is the communion of a particle of humanity with all the sensuality of the earth.

Lust is the quest of the flesh for the unknown, just as Celebration is the spirit’s quest for the unknown. Lust is the act of creating, it is Creation.

Flesh creates in the way that the spirit creates. In the eyes of the Universe their creation is equal. One is not superior to the other and creation of the spirit depends on that of the flesh.

We possess body and spirit. To curb one and develop the other shows weakness and is wrong. A strong man must realize his full carnal and spiritual potentiality. The satisfaction of their lust is the conquerors’ due. After a battle in which men have died, it is normal for the victors, proven in war, to turn to rape in the conquered land, so that life may be re-created.

When they have fought their battles, soldiers seek sensual pleasures, in which their constantly battling energies can be unwound and renewed. The modern hero, the hero in any field, experiences the same desire and the same pleasure. The artist, that great universal medium, has the same need. And the exaltation of the initiates of those religions still sufficiently new to contain a tempting element of the unknown, is no more than sensuality diverted spiritually towards a sacred female image.

Art and war are the great manifestations of sensuality; lust is their flower. A people exclusively spiritual or a people exclusively carnal would be condemned to the same decadence—sterility.

Lust excites energy and releases strength. Pitilessly it drove primitive man to victory, for the pride of bearing back a woman the spoils of the defeated. Today it drives the great men of business who run the banks, the press and international trade to increase their wealth by creating centers, harnessing energies and exalting the crowds, to worship and glorify with it the object of their lust. These men, tired but strong, find time for lust, the principal motive force of their action and of the reactions caused by their actions affecting multitudes and worlds.

Even among the new peoples where sensuality has not yet been released or acknowledged, and who are neither primitive brutes nor the sophisticated representatives of the old civilizations, woman is equally the great galvanizing principle to which all is offered. The secret cult that man has for her is only the unconscious drive of a lust as yet barely woken. Amongst these peoples as amongst the peoples of the north, but for different reasons, lust is almost exclusively concerned with procreation. But lust, under whatever aspects it shows itself, whether they are considered normal or abnormal, is always the supreme spur.

The animal life, the life of energy, the life of the spirit, sometimes demand a respite. And effort for effort’s sake calls inevitably for effort for pleasure’s sake. These efforts are not mutually harmful but complementary, and realize fully the total being.

For heroes, for those who create with the spirit, for dominators of all fields, lust is the magnificent exaltation of their strength. For every being it is a motive to surpass oneself with the simple aim of self-selection, of being noticed, chosen, picked out.

Christian morality alone, following on from pagan morality, was fatally drawn to consider lust as a weakness. Out of the healthy joy which is the flowering of the flesh in all its power it has made something shameful and to be hidden, a vice to be denied. It has covered it with hypocrisy, and this has made a sin of it.

We must stop despising Desire, this attraction at once delicate and brutal between two bodies, of whatever sex, two bodies that want each other, striving for unity. We must stop despising Desire, disguising it in the pitiful clothes of old and sterile sentimentality.

It is not lust that disunites, dissolves and annihilates. It is rather the mesmerizing complications of sentimentality, artificial jealousies, words that inebriate and deceive, the rhetoric of parting and eternal fidelities, literary nostalgia—all the histrionics of love.

We must get rid of all the ill-omened debris of romanticism, counting daisy petals, moonlight duets, heavy endearments, false hypocritical modesty. When beings are drawn together by a physical attraction, let them—instead of talking only of the fragility of their hearts—dare to express their desires, the inclinations of their bodies, and to anticipate the possibilities of joy and disappointment in their future carnal union.

Physical modesty, which varies according to time and place, has only the ephemeral value of a social virtue.

We must face up to lust in full conciousness. We must make of it what a sophisticated and intelligent being makes of himself and of his life; we must make lust into a work of art. To allege unwariness or bewilderment in order to explain an act of love is hypocrisy, weakness and stupidity.

We should desire a body consciously, like any other thing.

Love at first sight, passion or failure to think, must not prompt us to be constantly giving ourselves, nor to take beings, as we are usually inclined to do so due to our inability to see into the future. We must choose intelligently. Directed by our intuition and will, we should compare the feelings and desires of the two partners and avoid uniting and satisfying any that are unable to complement and exalt each other.

Equally conciously and with the same guiding will, the joys of this coupling should lead to the climax, should develop its full potential, and should permit to flower all the seeds sown by the merging of two bodies. Lust should be made into a work of art, formed like every work of art, both instinctively and consciously.

We must strip lust of all the sentimental veils that disfigure it. These veils were thrown over it out of mere cowardice, because smug sentimentality is so satisfying. Sentimentality is comfortable and therefore demeaning.

In one who is young and healthy, when lust clashes with sentimentality, lust is victorious. Sentiment is a creature of fashion, lust is eternal. Lust triumphs, because it is the joyous exaltation that drives one beyond oneself, the delight in posession and domination, the perpetual victory from which the perpetual battle is born anew, the headiest and surest intoxication of conquest. And as this certain conquest is temporary, it must be constantly won anew.

Lust is a force, in that it refines the spirit by bringing to white heat the excitement of the flesh. The spirit burns bright and clear from a healthy, strong flesh, purified in the embrace. Only the weak and sick sink into the mire and are diminished. And lust is a force in that it kills the weak and exalts the strong, aiding natural selection.

Lust is a force, finally, in that it never leads to the insipidity of the definite and the secure, doled out by soothing sentimentality. Lust is the eternal battle, never finally won. After the fleeting triumph, even during the ephemeral triumph itself, reawakening dissatisfaction spurs a human being, driven by an orgiastic will, to expand and surpass himself.

Lust is for the body what an ideal is for the spirit—the magnificent Chimaera, that one ever clutches at but never captures, and which the young and the avid, intoxicated with the vision, pursue without rest.

Lust is a force.

Futurist predicts 50% of all jobs will disappear by 2030


Two billion lost jobs equates to approximately 50% of all jobs that currently exist. Some new jobs will likely be created at the same time, but they'll be substantially different from existing jobs, and it won't necessarily be easy for workers to make the jump. We should reiterate that this is simply a prediction by one futurist, but given the trends that have established themselves over the last decade, we tend to agree that this is the direction that things are hopefully heading, even if the magnitude ends up not being quite so extreme.

Technology is a pretty great thing, but every time we invent something that works faster or better or more efficiently, we get a little bit closer to making human labor redundant. Futurist Thomas Frey is predicting that in under two decades, two billion people will lose their jobs to technological progress. It's happened to me, and it can happen to you.

We're not saying "hopefully" because we hate people having jobs, we're saying it because a lot of these improvements will lead to a better society as a whole. So, let's see what's going to happen, as outlined by Thomas Frey:
Power Industry

As it stands, power generation is expensive, inefficient and (usually) terrible for the environment in one way or another. By 2030, power will have become decentralized into a micro grid, where if your house isn't generating most of its own power from solar or wind or natural gas conversion, your neighborhood or city will have its own small, local system to get you what you need. The coal industry will vanish, the transportation industry will shrink significantly, and utility companies will have to radically restructure themselves.
Automotive Industry

Driving is a ridiculous waste of time, energy, and money. Most of us have cars that sit unused 90% of the time. A highway at rush-hour capacity is still over 80% empty space. A one hour commute every day will cost you over three weeks per year of time behind the wheel. And car accidents kill or injure more than 50 million people every year. Autonomous, decentralized cars are definitely the way to go, and since they already exist, we should have no problem adopting them within 20 years. When we do, there will be no more buses, no more taxis, no more people needed to deliver anything, far fewer gas stations and auto repair shops, and with everyone sharing cars, the overall amount of vehicles will plummet as well.
Education

Our education system is based on a teacher giving the same class over and over every single year. This seems like a waste of time, when the teacher could just record the lecture once and then go work on something more interesting. Also, recording lectures allows for students to learn remotely and on their own time, and drastically increases the number of people who can benefit from a course, since you don't have to try to stuff them all into the same room at once. With top-notch schools like Stanford and MIT already offering their courses online and for free, it's making less and less sense to spend a huge amount of time and money getting a diploma when you could potentially learn the exact same things at home without paying anything.
Manufacturing

3D printers are evolving rapidly, to the point where they may completely take over small and medium-sized manufacturing tasks in the near future. This isn't just making useful household objects: it's also possible to 3D print everything from clothes to food. With technology like this available, it doesn't make sense to buy things in stores anymore: just browse online for what you want, push a button, and it'll magically appear in your printer. While designers are probably safe (as are people who manufacture and support 3D printers and their components), brick and mortar retailers are going to have a hard time of it, and even larger construction projects, like houses, could transition completely to automatic 3D printing.
Robotics

Well, you probably saw this coming, right? Take any task that's dull, dirty, or dangerous, and just get a robot to do it instead. Such transitions are already happening in fields like fishing, mining, large-scale agriculture, security, the military, and as robots get smarter, cheaper, and more versatile, they'll spread into domestic household tasks, too.







Now, we're not saying that you should freak out if you have a job in a field on this list. Most technological progress takes a lot longer than we think it will, giving you ample time to start training for your new career in micro-power generator installation or 3D printer maintenance. But seriously, part of the idea here is that making our lives more efficient will give us more time to do what we wantto do (fun) instead of what we need to do (work), and it may simply turn out that everybody gets to work less even as our overall quality of life improves. Imagine if you never had to do domestic chores again. Imagine if you never had to go shopping again. Imagine if every time you got in a car, you could use that time to do some work, watch a movie, or take a nap.

If you look back a hundred years or so, everyone but the very rich spent the vast majority of their time just doing things that needed to be done. With technology, we've managed to make it so most people only have to work eight hours a day, get weekends off, and even get to take vacations every year. Looking forward, it's certainly plausible that this trend will continue, and disappearing jobs won't mean that more humans will be unemployed, but rather it will mean that humanity as a whole has become a more efficient species, with more of our work begin done for us resulting in more time available to do what we want with our lives.

Futurist Speaker, via Singularity Hub

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

A prediction for 2012: A very large percentage of the juicier predictions you’ve already read for the coming year will turn out to be wrong

Business stories to watch in 2012


By Steven Syre |  GLOBE COLUMNIST     JANUARY 03, 2012


A prediction for 2012: A very large percentage of the juicier predictions you’ve already read for the coming year will turn out to be wrong.


Good predictions and forecasts come with details and take risks by seeing something other than more of the same ahead. They are incredibly hard to get right with any regularity, the reason I stay away from the prognostication business.


But it isn’t so hard to put your finger on things that will be worth watching and figure out how to track those developments as they unfold in 2012. At the start of a new year, lots of big-picture issues and smaller stories close to home have my attention.




Start with the broad economy of 2012, the ultimate big-picture unknown. The US economy has started to recover only to stall out - twice! - since the official end of the recession in 2009. We begin this year with several months of real momentum that clearly represent a third opportunity to get on the track of a true recovery. Will it work this time?


Economists are especially reluctant to say. One reason: Europe remains a crisis waiting to happen and it could change everything. But no one can even guess how it will play out in 2012.


So, the US consensus forecast is positive but drab. Economists generally expect slow growth that will not be strong enough to move the unemployment needle very far. Many expect the current pace of growth to slow. Some worry that election-year politics - often a stimulating factor - could actually increase uncertainty and indecision, becoming an economic wet blanket.


All of this is possible, but it is important to point out that the economic herd has missed almost every turn in the recent past. Most economists expected steady improvement at the start of 2011 and did not forecast America’s summer stall. Then many feared a double-dip recession or, more commonly, forecast a muddle ahead, failing to anticipate the strong momentum of the final four months of the year.


A few simple things will tell you a lot about the direction of the economy this year. For one, the four-week moving average of new unemployment claims is one of the most reliable indicators of the short-term future. That number has been shrinking lately, and more progress early in 2012 would be unambiguous good news.


Clear progress in Europe would give America’s economy a real boost. The United States can manage a recession in Europe, but all bets are off in a real financial crisis.


Finally, the price of gasoline - something we see and pay every week - is also an important influence on consumer confidence and could hurt momentum this year. Every time gas prices jump, consumers pull in their horns. Prices at the pump have been steady, but expensive oil approaching or exceeding the $100-per-barrel level poses a threat.


Another development worth watching: how the state’s most important industry works and gets paid. I’m talking about health care changes.


Doctors and hospitals are not just making billing changes. They are reshaping entire organizations in ways that will affect health care and the economy for years to come. Big changes took place last year, and more substantial steps are in store in 2012.


Expect more mergers and consolidation of health services into giant medical networks reacting to pressures to cut costs and accept more financial risk.


One last thing to watch: New products and services from companies in Massachusetts. That covers a lot of territory, but I’m especially interested in Vertex Pharmaceuticals and its new treatment for cystic fibrosis.


Vertex launched its closely followed hepatitis C treatment in 2011 and hopes to win approval for its Kalydeco treatment for cystic fibrosis this year. The drug is on track for a decision by regulators this spring.


Kalydeco would treat a relatively small percentage of patients with cystic fibrosis. But it is the first drug that attacks the underlying defect in the genetic disease and could lead to other treatments that help more people. The drug’s success would be a commercial hit for Vertex and change the way we treat a deadly disease.


Happy New Year. It’s going to be busy in 2012.


SOURCE: BOSTON CAPITAL http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2012/01/03/business-stories-watch/3sRwBmqZikWhNBi8LKGmSK/story.html