Futurist predicts 50% of all jobs will disappear by 2030

Two billion lost jobs equates to approximately 50% of all jobs that currently exist. Some new jobs will likely be created at the same time, but they'll be substantially different from existing jobs, and it won't necessarily be easy for workers to make the jump. We should reiterate that this is simply a prediction by one futurist, but given the trends that have established themselves over the last decade, we tend to agree that this is the direction that things are hopefully heading, even if the magnitude ends up not being quite so extreme.

Technology is a pretty great thing, but every time we invent something that works faster or better or more efficiently, we get a little bit closer to making human labor redundant. Futurist Thomas Frey is predicting that in under two decades, two billion people will lose their jobs to technological progress. It's happened to me, and it can happen to you.

We're not saying "hopefully" because we hate people having jobs, we're saying it because a lot of these improvements will lead to a better society as a whole. So, let's see what's going to happen, as outlined by Thomas Frey:
Power Industry

As it stands, power generation is expensive, inefficient and (usually) terrible for the environment in one way or another. By 2030, power will have become decentralized into a micro grid, where if your house isn't generating most of its own power from solar or wind or natural gas conversion, your neighborhood or city will have its own small, local system to get you what you need. The coal industry will vanish, the transportation industry will shrink significantly, and utility companies will have to radically restructure themselves.
Automotive Industry

Driving is a ridiculous waste of time, energy, and money. Most of us have cars that sit unused 90% of the time. A highway at rush-hour capacity is still over 80% empty space. A one hour commute every day will cost you over three weeks per year of time behind the wheel. And car accidents kill or injure more than 50 million people every year. Autonomous, decentralized cars are definitely the way to go, and since they already exist, we should have no problem adopting them within 20 years. When we do, there will be no more buses, no more taxis, no more people needed to deliver anything, far fewer gas stations and auto repair shops, and with everyone sharing cars, the overall amount of vehicles will plummet as well.
Education

Our education system is based on a teacher giving the same class over and over every single year. This seems like a waste of time, when the teacher could just record the lecture once and then go work on something more interesting. Also, recording lectures allows for students to learn remotely and on their own time, and drastically increases the number of people who can benefit from a course, since you don't have to try to stuff them all into the same room at once. With top-notch schools like Stanford and MIT already offering their courses online and for free, it's making less and less sense to spend a huge amount of time and money getting a diploma when you could potentially learn the exact same things at home without paying anything.
Manufacturing

3D printers are evolving rapidly, to the point where they may completely take over small and medium-sized manufacturing tasks in the near future. This isn't just making useful household objects: it's also possible to 3D print everything from clothes to food. With technology like this available, it doesn't make sense to buy things in stores anymore: just browse online for what you want, push a button, and it'll magically appear in your printer. While designers are probably safe (as are people who manufacture and support 3D printers and their components), brick and mortar retailers are going to have a hard time of it, and even larger construction projects, like houses, could transition completely to automatic 3D printing.
Robotics

Well, you probably saw this coming, right? Take any task that's dull, dirty, or dangerous, and just get a robot to do it instead. Such transitions are already happening in fields like fishing, mining, large-scale agriculture, security, the military, and as robots get smarter, cheaper, and more versatile, they'll spread into domestic household tasks, too.







Now, we're not saying that you should freak out if you have a job in a field on this list. Most technological progress takes a lot longer than we think it will, giving you ample time to start training for your new career in micro-power generator installation or 3D printer maintenance. But seriously, part of the idea here is that making our lives more efficient will give us more time to do what we wantto do (fun) instead of what we need to do (work), and it may simply turn out that everybody gets to work less even as our overall quality of life improves. Imagine if you never had to do domestic chores again. Imagine if you never had to go shopping again. Imagine if every time you got in a car, you could use that time to do some work, watch a movie, or take a nap.

If you look back a hundred years or so, everyone but the very rich spent the vast majority of their time just doing things that needed to be done. With technology, we've managed to make it so most people only have to work eight hours a day, get weekends off, and even get to take vacations every year. Looking forward, it's certainly plausible that this trend will continue, and disappearing jobs won't mean that more humans will be unemployed, but rather it will mean that humanity as a whole has become a more efficient species, with more of our work begin done for us resulting in more time available to do what we want with our lives.

Futurist Speaker, via Singularity Hub

Source:http://dvice.com

Robotics Of Interest

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Fastest Robot (Mabel)

Robotic Seagull

Robots Too Ride

The Fembot Geminoid-F Still Making The Rounds & Still Turning Heads

Meet Geminoid-F, Professor Ishiguro's latest uncanny android
Visitors to Tokyo's Shinjuku ward my find themselves figuratively transported to the uncanny valley, if they take a stroll past Takashimaya department store, that is. Until Valentine's Day, ...

Video: PopSci's Favorite Japanese Fembot Gets a Modeling Job at the Mall
Geminoid-F at the Mall via DigInfo NewsAdd 'mannequin' to the list of jobs being replaced by robots In this economy, a job is a job. And while we await the day that we can hire our ...


Tokyo store's female android looking for love
Takashimaya has rolled out a Geminoid robot to greet shoppers for Valentine's Day. Will she find love? Originally posted at Crave

Geminoid-F Android Waits for a Friend in a Tokyo Department Store
If you go to the Takashimaya department store in Shinjuku, Tokyo, by Valentines Day, you will be able to see the Geminoid-F android casually sitting in a show window, looking as if it's ...

Android mannequin adds flavor to shop display

The Curious Science of Lovotics: Kissing Distance Goodbye And Hello

Kissenger: Kiss Messenger, A Lovotics Application

Kissnger is an application of Lovotics. Kissenger system consists of a pair of robots to transfer kiss over distance.
Kissenger provides a novel way of transferring a kiss through interactive digital media. It provides a physical interface enabling kiss communication for several applications facilitating intimate human tele-presence with the real and virtual worlds.
Kissing is a very important mode of human communication that involves joining lips in order to express many deep felt positive emotions such as affection, respect, greeting, farewell, good luck, romantic affection or sexual desire. Apart from the surface level enjoyment humans have by kissing, it also plays a crucial biologically motivated role in allowing prospective mates to smell and taste each other's pheromones for detecting compatibility.
With the aid of digital communication media and advanced robotic technology, the system takes the form of an artificial mouth that provides the convincing properties of the real kiss.

 

Kissenger enables three modes of interaction:
1. Human to Human tele-kiss through the device: bridges the physical gap between two intimately connected individuals. Kissenger plays the mediating role in the kiss interaction by imitating and recreating the lip movement of both users in real time using two digitally connected artificial lips.
2. Human to Robot kiss: enabling an intimate relationship with a robot, such technology provides a new facility for closer and more realistic interactions between humans and robots. In this scenario, one set of artificial lips is integrated in a humanoid robot.
3. Human to Virtual character physical/virtual kiss: provides a link between the virtual and real worlds. Here, humans can kiss virtual characters while playing games and receive physical kisses from their favorite virtual characters. Further, Kissenger can be integrated into modern communication devices to facilitate the interactive communication between natural and technologically mediated environments and enhance human tele-presence.

Contact: hooman SamaniSource:http://kissenger.lovotics.com/

Robots: Survey Says....I'd Go Into Debt For A Robot Who Does the Windows

Will Robots Take Over the World?


We've all seen the movies where robots take over the Earth and humans come together in rag tag factions to fight off the new cold steel heartless overlords. But, do people really fear robots? The answer is yes, some do, according to a January 2012 Persuadable Research Robot Survey. It appears that 10% are frightened by robots. A full 24% believe that they could take over the world someday.

If one thinks about it carefully, robots can only be as safe as humans program them to be. Add in artificial intelligence and a Pandora's Box might just might be opened. For all of the potential benefits of having robots, there are as many potential liabilities.

The majority of respondents, 73%, felt that humans might become lazy. However, a smaller percentage, 29%, thought robots would be a bad influence on children. Some just thought they would make life more complicated. Even so, 58% of panelists believed that robots would be commonplace in future society.

Among those who didn't like the idea of robots "hanging around", it was clear that there was a real level of discomfort when asking about specific interactions. The highest discomfort level, 42%, was recorded when respondents admitted that they would hate the idea of robots making decisions about things. Talking with a robot would make 20% feel paranoid.

There weren't high hopes for robot intelligence either. One third didn't think there would ever be robots with super human intelligence. Another 22% couldn't imagine them producing Nobel prize quality work, and 20% believed that they would never be able to carry on a conversation well enough to pass as a human. On the other hand, 66% thought that robots would be able to solve problems as well as a third grader.

When it comes to actually purchasing a robot, it seems that 29% of those surveyed wouldn't be interested. Some respondents believed that robots would intrude on their privacy. Perhaps others could not justify owning one, or thought they would be too expensive. Regardless of how people feel, only time will tell whether or not robots will remain the stuff of science fiction.





Persuadable Research Survey Shows Many Willing To Borrow Money To Buy A Domestic Robot
In a January 2012 survey conducted by Persuadable Research Corporation, it is clear that most people would be in favor of domestic robots. The list of task abilities that is desired from a domestic robot is quite long. At the top of the list is moving heavy things and providing home security. Other tasks include cleaning windows, washing floors and dishes and doing laundry. Interestingly, nearly half, 41%, said they might consider a loan to pay for a robot.

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Nearly half, 41%, said they might consider a loan to pay for a robot.

Overland Park, KS (PRWEB) January 30, 2012

When thinking about robots, most people conjure up those that they've seen in movies or read about in books. Others think of manufacturing or medical robots. But how many think about domestic robots? In a January 2012 survey conducted by Persuadable Research Corporation, it is clear that most people would be in favor of such robots. A majority, 68%, of respondents would consider a domestic robot useful.

The list of task abilities that is desired from a domestic robot is quite long. At the top of the list is moving heavy things, 55%, and providing home security, 54%. Other tasks include cleaning windows, washing floors and dishes and doing laundry. A fairly large number, 46%, wanted to use their domestic robot to remind them of things; kind of like a personal assistant. A smaller number approved them to help with the disabled, 12%, elderly, 11%, or to function as babysitters, 9%. It's obvious that as trust requirements increased, such as caring for humans, the potential usage percentages dropped.

Thinking about building the perfect robot? It should have a more humanlike voice that should sound not too young or too old. Interestingly, 51% also preferred that the voice wouldn't sound too feminine or too masculine either. In terms of appearance, it would be more humanlike than machinelike, a little on the funny side, more colorful than metallic, more round than square shaped, and allow for personal design, perhaps like buying a car.

While 29% of respondents claim that they wouldn't buy a robot, others were ready to shell out real dough for such an item. Nearly half, 41%, said they might consider a loan to pay for a robot. However, quite a few, 28%, who were willing to pay, wanted the robot to cost under $999. This is probably an unrealistic price point considering a good laptop can cost about the same. Still another 20% would go up to $4,999, while 10% would be willing to fork over up to $14,999. There was another 13% who were willing to pay more than $15,000.

There is undoubtedly a market for domestic robots and while many respondents appear hopeful, it might be some time before they are actually available. Until then, it looks as if we'll have to pick up the slack.

For more information contact Persuadable Research Corporation, an island of research intelligence in the sea ofmarket research companies. To get paid to take online surveys visit our panel site at Rocket Powered Surveys

Source:http://www.persuadables.com/dasblog/2012/02/03/Will-Robots-Take-Over-The-World.aspx

The Human-Machine Interface: Neuroscience, conflict and security

07 February 2012
Professor Rod Flower FRS talks about the report.

Professor Rod Flower FRS talks about the report.

This report considers some of the potential military and law enforcement applications arising from key advances in neuroscience.
Key findings
Neuroscientists have a responsibility to be aware from an early stage of their training that knowledge and technologies used for beneficial purposes can also be misused for harmful purposes.
The development of an absolutely safe incapacitating chemical weapon is not technically feasible because of inherent variables such as the size, health and age of the target population, secondary injury and the requirement for medical aftercare.
Countries adhering to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) should address the definition and status of incapacitating chemical weapons under the CWC at the next Review Conference in 2013.

Neuroscience is a rapidly advancing field encompassing a range of applications and technologies that are likely to provide significant benefits to society, particularly in the treatment of neurological impairment, disease, and psychiatric illness. However, this new knowledge also suggests a number of potential military and law enforcement applications.

These applications tend to serve one of two main goals. Performance enhancing applications seek to improve the efficiency of one’s own forces – for example by optimising recruitment, training and operational performance or improving treatments for rehabilitation. Performance degrading applications seek to diminish the performance of one’s enemy – for example through the development of weapons such as incapacitating chemicals.

The report considers some of the key advances in neuroscience, including neuropharmacology, functional neuroimaging and neural interface systems, which could impact upon these developments and the policy implications for the international community, the UK government and the scientific community

Source:http://royalsociety.org/policy/projects/brain-waves/

Project details

This project is investigating developments in neuroscience and their implications for society and public policy.

Increasing understanding of the brain and associated advances in technologies to study it will enable improved treatment of neurodegenerative diseases and mental illnesses. These advances will also increase our insights into normal human behaviour and mental wellbeing, and give the possibility of other enhancement, manipulation, and even degradation of brain function.

These developments are likely to provide significant benefits for society, and they will also raise major social and ethical issues due to wide ranging applications. Brain research is likely to have implications for a diverse range of public policy areas such as health, education, law, and security. Progress in neuroscience raises questions about personality, identity, responsibility, and liberty.

The Brain Waves project explores the potential and the limitations of neuroscience insights for policymaking, as well as the benefits and the risks posed by applications of neuroscience and neurotechnologies.
Neuroscience could mean soldiers controlling weapons with minds:

Neuroscience breakthroughs could be harnessed by military and law enforcers, says Royal Society report

Ian Sample, science correspondent
The Guardian, Monday 6 February 2012


Medevac troops from the American 451st air expeditionary wing look out from their Pavehawk helicopter while heading to pick up casualties in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Photograph: Sean Smith for the Guardian


Soldiers could have their minds plugged directly into weapons systems, undergo brain scans during recruitment and take courses of neural stimulation to boost their learning, if the armed forces embrace the latest developments in neuroscience to hone the performance of their troops.

These scenarios are described in a report into the military and law enforcement uses of neuroscience, published on Tuesday, which also highlights a raft of legal and ethical concerns that innovations in the field may bring.

The report by the Royal Society, the UK's national academy of science, says that while the rapid advance of neuroscience is expected to benefit society and improve treatments for brain disease and mental illness, it also has substantial security applications that should be carefully analysed.

The report's authors also anticipate new designer drugs that boost performance, make captives more talkative and make enemy troops fall asleep.

"Neuroscience will have more of an impact in the future," said Rod Flower, chair of the report's working group.

"People can see a lot of possibilities, but so far very few have made their way through to actual use.

"All leaps forward start out this way. You have a groundswell of ideas and suddenly you get a step change."

The authors argue that while hostile uses of neuroscience and related technologies are ever more likely, scientists remain almost oblivious to the dual uses of their research.

The report calls for a fresh effort to educate neuroscientists about such uses of the work early in their careers.

Some techniques used widely in neuroscience are on the brink of being adopted by the military to improve the training of soldiers, pilots and other personnel.

A growing body of research suggests that passing weak electrical signals through the skull, using transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS), can improve people's performance in some tasks.

One study cited by the report described how US neuroscientists employed tDCS to improve people's ability to spot roadside bombs, snipers and other hidden threats in a virtual reality training programme used by US troops bound for the Middle East.

"Those who had tDCS learned to spot the targets much quicker," said Vince Clark, a cognitive neuroscientist and lead author on the study at the University of New Mexico. "Their accuracy increased twice as fast as those who had minimal brain stimulation. I was shocked that the effect was so large."

Clark, whose wider research on tDCS could lead to radical therapies for those with dementia, psychiatric disorders and learning difficulties, admits to a tension in knowing that neuroscience will be used by the military.

"As a scientist I dislike that someone might be hurt by my work. I want to reduce suffering, to make the world a better place, but there are people in the world with different intentions, and I don't know how to deal with that.

"If I stop my work, the people who might be helped won't be helped. Almost any technology has a defence application."

Research with tDCS is in its infancy, but work so far suggests it might help people by boosting their attention and memory. According to theRoyal Society report, when used with brain imaging systems, tDCS "may prove to be the much sought-after tool to enhance learning in a military context".

One of the report's most striking scenarios involves the use of devices called brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) to connect people's brains directly to military technology, including drones and other weapons systems.

The work builds on research that has enabled people to control cursors and artificial limbs through BMIs that read their brain signals.

"Since the human brain can process images, such as targets, much faster than the subject is consciously aware of, a neurally interfaced weapons system could provide significant advantages over other system control methods in terms of speed and accuracy," the report states.

The authors go on to stress the ethical and legal concerns that surround the use of BMIs by the military. Flower, a professor of pharmacology at the William Harvey Research Institute at Barts and the London hospital, said: "If you are controlling a drone and you shoot the wrong target or bomb a wedding party, who is responsible for that action? Is it you or the BMI?

"There's a blurring of the line between individual responsibility and the functioning of the machine. Where do you stop and the machine begin?"

Another tool expected to enter military use is the EEG (electroencephalogram), which uses a hairnet of electrodes to record brainwaves through the skull. Used with a system called "neurofeedback", people can learn to control their brainwaves and improve their skills.

According to the report, the technique has been shown to improve training in golfers and archers.

The US military research organisation, Darpa, has already used EEG to help spot targets in satellite images that were missed by the person screening them. The EEG traces revealed that the brain sometimes noticed targets but failed to make them conscious thoughts. Staff used the EEG traces to select a group of images for closer inspection and improved their target detection threefold, the report notes.

Work on brain connectivity has already raised the prospect of using scans to select fast learners during recruitment drives.

Research last year by Scott Grafton at the University of California, Santa Barbara, drew on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans to measure the flexibility of brain networks. They found that a person's flexibility helped predict how quickly they would learn a new task.

Other studies suggest neuroscience could help distinguish risk-takers from more conservative decision-makers, and so help with assessments of whether they are better suited to peacekeeping missions or special forces, the report states.

"Informal assessment occurs routinely throughout the military community. The issue is whether adopting more formal techniques based on the results of research in neuroeconomics, neuropsychology and other neuroscience disciplines confers an advantage in decision-making."

Source:http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/feb/07/neuroscience-soldiers-control-weapons-mind





MILITARY
Future wars may be waged with mind-controlled weaponry, Royal Society warns
By James Holloway

07:15 February 7, 2012




A report published by the Royal Society warns the neuroscience community to be aware of the military ramifications of its research, including the potential for mind-controlled weaponry (Image: Patrick Hoesly)

Neuroscience has ramifications for future warfare, and the scientific community must be more aware. So says a report published today by the Royal Society titledNeuroscience, conflict and security, which cites interest in neuroscience from the military community, and identifies particular technologies that may arise. Among them is the potential for "neural interface systems" (NIS) to bring about weapons controllable by the human mind, though the reports also discusses more benign military applications of neuroscience, such as fostering a revolution in prosthetic limbs.
Brain-controlled technology

The report distinguishes between two types of neural interface: those that "input into" the brain's neural systems, and those that monitor neural activity to predict "motor intentions" - outcomes of thought processes, essentially. Specific NIS technologies mentioned by the report include both EEG and electronic implants, citing the success of BrainGate in allowing paralyzed patients to control the motion of an on-screen cursor by "simply imagining this motion."

"NIS such as BrainGate could also be used to allow long-range control of motion," the report finds. "Electrode arrays implanted in the nervous system could provide a connection between the nervous system of an able-bodied individual and a specific hardware or software system. Since the human brain can process images, such as targets, much faster than the subject is consciously aware of, a neurally interfaced weapons systems could provide significant advantages over other system control methods in terms of speed and accuracy."
Sensing the battlefield

The report also discusses the sensory potential of NIS technology. Infrared or sonar sensors connected to magnetic implants on the human body could allow combatants and law enforcers to effectively feel the heat or proximity of an object. On these points and others, the report highlights not only technological possibilities, but also that ethical and legal questions that surround them.
Military interest

The report highlights a wealth of current search and available funding from various US and UK government agencies into neuroscience applications. DARPA is funding programs seeking to enhance human performance under stress, and neural-controlled prosthetics. The US Air Force 711th Human Performance Wing invites research into alertness management, as well as the identification of "human-borne threats" and individuals resistant to "stressors and countermeasures on cognitive performance and physiological stamina." Meanwhile the UK Ministry of Defence has launched a national PhD which includes bio-electronics integration, synthetic synaesthesia and exploiting the subconscious.

By identifying active military research into neuroscience, the Royal Society paints a future of warfare influenced by neuroscience applications as a very real possibility. As well as neuroscience's massive potential for benign medical applications, the Royal Society is seeking to raise awareness among the scientific community of "hostile" applications.
Recommendations

"Studies suggest that the great majority of scientists have little to no knowledge of their obligations under these treaties, nor a wide awareness of the potential malign applications of their research," the report concludes, before recommending that the UK government should strengthen communications with industry and academia to "scope for significant future trends and threats posed by the applications of neuroscience."

The full report and its set of recommendations is available from the Royal Society website. Report chair, Professor Rod Flower FRS, summarizes the report in the following video.

Source: Royal Society via the Guardian

http://www.gizmag.com/royal-society-neuroscience-warfare/21366/